Forecasting the Market

Forecasting the Electric Vehicle Market

The growth forecasts of battery electric vehicles are real and transformative.

Battery electric vehicle sales have grown from 1.5 million in 2019, to 4.7 million in 2021 and at least 7.5 million in 2022. The IEA predicts that, by 2030, sales will reach 30 million vehicles globally.

We think that forecast is more conservative than what we’ll actually see in the future.

The change is real and might happen faster than you expect.

Every region will adopt BEVs differently

Although transportation markets will see rapid growth in electrified vehicles globally, every region differs.

China is the clear leader in adoption, followed by Europe and the United States. Hybrids and conventional ICE will remain popular in other regions.

Electrified vehicles will not lead to a quick death of the internal combustion engine.

Today’s ICE-powered vehicles are staying on the road longer than ever. Even if ICE sales ended in 2035, those vehicles will still be operating for quite some time.

Couple that with the fact that hybrids and other electrified vehicles still contain an ICE, consumers will still need engine oils throughout the electrified transformation.

The e-mobility evolution of commercial vehicles is more complex.

For commercial transportation, different variables drive changes in the market. We can expect to see technology mixes of electric battery, fuel cells, and ICE powered by both conventional and alternative fuels. Powertrains become even more diverse to match the wide range of duty cycles, routes and power requirements.

Manufacturing Plant

Today’s dominant BEV manufacturers may not dominate in the future.

While there are two clear leaders today producing battery electric vehicles, traditional OEMs are ramping up production. Expect to see significant changes in market share in the coming years.

In dynamic and changing times, you need a partner you can trust. Your Lubrizol representative is one click away. Tell us about yourself and discover how Lubrizol can help you prepare for an electrified future.